Brent Hits $110 as Emergency Oil Loans Fall Short

Brent crude settled at $109.86 a barrel on Friday, up $3.94 or 3.7 percent, after touching $110 for the first time since May. U.S. West Texas Intermediate closed at $101.41, its highest finish since September 17, on a day the Energy Department asked companies to borrow up to 17 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

Oil prices still rose through that offer, through an International Energy Agency diesel release announced a day earlier, and through a White House waiver of new Russia sanctions built to squeeze Moscow’s fuel trade. The session told traders those tools are loans, licenses, and promises, not barrels already in tanks.

Brent Prints Its Highest Close Since May

Friday’s $109.86 settlement was Brent’s highest close since May 19, and the contract traded through $110 during the day. For the week Brent rose 4.9 percent. WTI gained 10.4 percent, more than double the international benchmark, after U.S. crude inventories posted their largest weekly draw since February.

New York Harbor diesel, the futures contract that sets the tone for American trucking fuel, settled at $4.90 a gallon. RBOB gasoline futures finished at $3.235 a gallon, up 5.5 cents. Thursday’s Brent close had been $105.92, so almost the entire week’s remaining bid arrived in one sitting.

FRIDAY SETTLES AGAINST THE LAST HIGHS

Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial, said conflict in the Middle East “still keeps coming back” and that it is “questionable how much diesel fuel Russia can actually deliver to the markets.” Those two doubts, he said, are “just continuing to have traders be buyers.”

Seventeen Million Barrels Arrive as a Loan

The Energy Department’s Friday request for proposals is an exchange, not a sale. Companies would borrow up to 17 million barrels and return them later, a structure that shifts timing rather than adding permanent supply. The volume sits inside the 172 million barrels Washington already pledged as its share of an International Energy Agency action with about 30 countries, so the market had already counted those barrels once.

Set against Kpler’s latest Hormuz shortfall of about 5.53 million barrels a day, 17 million barrels covers roughly three days. The IEA on Thursday told members to speed the rest of its March stockpile action, including over 20 million barrels of diesel “as soon as possible.” That diesel slug is less than one day of global demand and about five days of U.S. use, and it is part of the remaining 100 million barrels from a March pledge of more than 400 million, of which about 330 million have already come out.

THREE RELIEF TOOLS, MEASURED IN DAYS

• IEA diesel: More than 20 million barrels, equal to about five days of U.S. consumption and less than four days of the current Hormuz crude gap.
• SPR exchange: Up to 17 million barrels as a loan, covering about three days of that same gap, after companies took only about 500,000 barrels from a similar June offer that carried payback premiums of up to 24 percent.
• Russia diesel license: An immediate 300,000 metric tons, about 2.25 million barrels, with larger later tranches that still have to clear ships, buyers, and a 2022 U.S. import statute.

Market tallies put the Strategic Petroleum Reserve near 283 million barrels. If bidders took the full 17 million before any oil was paid back, the stockpile would fall to about 266 million, inside the 250 million to 300 million band treated as the reserve’s working floor. The United States has already moved about 132.5 million barrels out of the SPR since the Iran war began. Refiners showed in June they will walk away from expensive repayment terms, which is why an offer on paper did not cap Friday’s bid.

The Diesel Deal Still Has to Clear a 2022 Ban

President Donald Trump said on October 9 that Russia would supply more than 300,000 metric tons of diesel at once, then 500,000 tons in November and 1 million tons after that, with another 3 million tons “within a short period.” The Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control issued General License No. 135 the same day, covering sale, delivery, offloading, or importation of Russian-origin diesel, including into the United States, through April 7.

That license suspends older executive-order sanctions. It does not erase a 2022 statute, the Ending Importation of Russian Oil Act, which says products of the Russian Federation in chapter 27 of the tariff schedule, diesel included, are banned from importation into the United States. The president can end that ban only after a peace agreement accepted by Ukraine’s government, and only after notice that gives Congress a chance to block him. None of those steps have been taken.

Scott R. Anderson, a legal analyst who reviewed the license, wrote that U.S. companies face criminal and civil penalties for imports “contrary to law,” and that civil fines can last up to five years, long enough for a later administration to sue. Trump later described the barrels as going “to the entire world,” not as a United States cargo. The license can make it easier for other countries to buy Russian diesel. It is much less likely to put that fuel into an American truck.

WHAT WE KNOW

• The license: General License No. 135 took effect on October 9 and runs until April 7, covering Russian diesel trades worldwide and U.S. imports on paper.
• The statute: The 2022 import ban is still on the books and is not waived by a Treasury license.
• The volumes: Trump’s first tranche is about 2.25 million barrels, a rounding error against a multi-million-barrel daily supply hole.

WHAT IS UNCONFIRMED

• U.S. cargoes: No public confirmation that an American importer will risk the 2022 statute to bring Russian diesel to a U.S. dock.
• SPR bids: The 17 million barrel request is a solicitation; June’s round drew about 500,000 barrels.
• Physical diesel: How many of the promised Russian tons will actually sail, and on what timetable, is still a trader’s guess.

European Union sanctions on Russia’s oil sector remain in force, so even the global window is narrower than the White House description. That is the second reason crude can rally in a week full of supply headlines: the headlines are legal text, and the fuel is still missing.

What $4.90 New York Diesel Does to Freight

AAA put regular U.S. gasoline at about $4.33 a gallon on Friday. Diesel at the pump cost more than $6.30 on average, nearly $2.70 higher than a year earlier. Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, wrote that Americans have now spent $135 billion more on gasoline and diesel purchases since March 1 than in the same stretch last year.

WHAT DRIVERS AND FLEETS ARE PAYING

• Regular gasoline: About $4.33 a gallon nationwide on Friday, per AAA.
• Retail diesel: More than $6.30 a gallon, nearly $2.70 above the year-ago average.
• The extra tab: $135 billion more spent on gasoline and diesel since March 1 than in the same period last year, per De Haan.
• U.S. stocks: Distillates, which include diesel and heating oil, fell 2.5 million barrels to 102.6 million in the week to October 9.

The Energy Information Administration reported that commercial crude inventories fell 8.6 million barrels to 415.6 million in the week ending October 9, against an expected draw of 288,000 barrels. Gasoline stocks rose 3.5 million barrels to 208.3 million, so the squeeze is in distillates, not in every product at once. Contracts for diesel and gasoline are trading at the highest levels ever seen for this point in the year, which is how a crude story becomes a freight story before it becomes a midterm story on November 3.

A Missile at Yanbu and a Shut Russian Unit

For most of the week Brent sat between $104 and $107 while governments advertised emergency barrels. Friday added two fresh threats in one session, and futures then went dark until Sunday evening, a mix that often fattens a geopolitical close.

THE WEEK WASHINGTON TRIED TO ADD BARRELS

1. March 2026: IEA members pledge more than 400 million barrels after the Strait of Hormuz crisis, the largest coordinated stock release in the agency’s history.
2. September 18, 2026: Trump signs the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act, which passed the House 262 to 159 and the Senate 86 to 11, with duties due by October 18 unless waived.
3. October 9, 2026: Trump announces the Russia diesel supply and OFAC issues General License No. 135.
4. October 15, 2026: The IEA Governing Board agrees to speed the remaining 100 million barrels, including more than 20 million barrels of diesel as soon as possible.
5. October 16, 2026: A Saudi-led coalition says it intercepted a ballistic missile aimed at Yanbu, a Ukrainian drone strike shuts a main unit at a large Russian refinery, the Energy Department tenders the 17 million barrel SPR loan, Trump waives the Graham Act, and Brent settles at $109.86.

Yanbu is Saudi Arabia’s main Red Sea export route while Hormuz volumes run about a third below normal, so even an intercepted missile is a reminder that the backup door is exposed. The Russian refinery outage hit the tightest part of the complex, diesel, which is the product the IEA, the White House, and U.S. pump politics are all chasing at once.

Hormuz Traffic Is Still About a Third Short

Kpler’s figures for the week to October 13 show about 11.62 million barrels a day moving through the Strait of Hormuz, against a baseline of 17.15 million. That is a 5.53 million barrel daily hole, or about 32 percent below the old run rate. Combined Gulf shipments on other routes have at times pushed total Middle East exports back toward pre-war levels, which is why some crude balances look less terrifying than they did in May.

Diesel has not healed with them. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol told G7 leaders that crude exports from the Middle East have recovered while refined-product flows remain constrained, with Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries making the diesel shortage worse. The agency’s October 6-linked U.S. forecast, the Short-Term Energy Outlook, now looks for Brent to average $105 in the fourth quarter, $14 above the September view, if Middle East shut-ins average 4.5 million barrels a day this quarter.

Amin Nasser, chief executive of Saudi Aramco, told the Energy Intelligence Forum in London on October 5 that the world had lost nearly 3 billion barrels of gross oil supply since the conflict began in late February. “The system is already straining,” he said, and “the supply resilience cushion is scarily thin.” Kpler puts global oil inventories at 3.35 billion barrels, the lowest since January 2017. Friday’s rally is what that thin cushion looks like when a missile and a refinery outage arrive on a short trading week.

Meeks Files a Bill to Shut the License

Hours around the same close, Trump signed an executive order implementing the Graham Act and then switching most of it off. Section 115 lets the president waive the law after telling Congress the waiver is in the national interests of the United States. The original start date was October 18. The order waives the core sanctions and duties two days early, including measures that would have raised tariffs on major buyers of Russian energy.

I have submitted to the Congress a certification that the issuance of such a waiver at this time is in the national interests of the United States.

Donald Trump, President, executive order of October 16, 2026

Representative Gregory Meeks, the top Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, introduced the Prohibit Corrupt Russia Oil Deals Act to revoke the OFAC licenses and bar federal backing for Russian energy trades. He said the diesel arrangement “will hand Putin millions of dollars to continue slaughtering Ukrainian civilians with impunity.” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, responding to the October 9 announcement, said gifts to Putin “will not bring peace or any benefit to the civilized world.”

The IEA Governing Board noted the IEA Secretariat’s most recent assessments, which point to continued tightness in oil markets, notably for diesel.

IEA Governing Board, statement of October 15, 2026

Futures reopen Sunday evening with that tightness still on the board, the Graham Act’s original start date on the calendar, and no proof yet that SPR bidders or Russian diesel cargoes will show up in size. The next EIA inventory report is due October 21. Until someone delivers fuel, $109.86 is the price of a relief package that still has to be believed.

Disclaimer: This article is news reporting and analysis of oil prices, emergency stock releases, and related U.S. sanctions policy, and it is for information only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation to trade crude or fuel futures, or legal advice on sanctions licenses or import bans. Readers who may act on energy prices, fuel costs, or compliance questions should consult a licensed financial adviser, an energy-market professional, or a qualified sanctions attorney before making decisions. Figures and legal statuses reflect the public statements and data cited as of the dates given in the piece and can change with the next settlement, inventory report, or government notice.